My friends and I have been exploring economic re-entry plans. The plans seem to boil down to five alternatives.
- Physical distancing until vaccine (18-months).
- The hammer and the dance.
- Test everyone every two weeks.
- Surveil everyone to enable contact tracing.
- Blindly reopen the country once we "flatten the curve."
Those alternatives exist loosely on a continuum between economic collapse and healthcare collapse. If we maintain current levels of physical distancing for 18-months, then the economy will collapse and/or transform. If we blindly reopen communities without a cogent plan, then the health care system will collapse.
Since we're Canadian, we are looking closely at reentry scenarios for the United States of America. We are looking closely at the USA because our two countries (Canada and the US) are profoundly connected, because Canada's economy is a peanut compared to that of the United States, because the USA has a buffoon for a president, and because the number of US deaths (and by extension cases) is enormous and growing.
Which reentry scenario do you see as best? (I think we ought to wait for a vaccine). Which do you see as most likely? (I think the USA will reopen with no clear plan). What will be the social and economic implications? What advice would you give to friends and family for how to spend time and and money over the next week, month, and year?
Some Related Articles / Websites